Lebanon's Revolution Meets Its Inevitable Fate
Back in February, the masssive street demonstrations in Martyrs' Square seemed indicate that the old post Civil War order carved in the stone of the Taef agreements was crumbling. Yet three months later, the apirations of the Maronite to rise to dominate Lebanese politics seem moot.
Lebanese kingmakers Walid Jumblatt (Druze), Saad Hariri (Sunni), Nabih Berry (Amal) and Hezbollah will continue to control two-thirds of the seats in Parliament. L'Orient Le-Jour announces two major deals in which the inheritors of the Christian Phalange and Lebanese Forces have been absorbed into the Hariri bloc and the Druze bloc, respectively. Solange al-Jumayyil has joined the electoral slate of Saad Hariri (son of Rafik) and Sethrida Geagea has joined forces with Walid Jumblatt on a common Shoof district slate. The odd man out is Michael ‘Awn, back from exile in France. Jumblatt is going to be working on him next.
So there will be no peace treaty with Israel, no disarming of Hezbollah militias, no forcing exiled Palestinians into desperate action and no rabidly anti-Syrian leadership. In fact, the current interim prime minister is Syrian President's Bashir Assad's good friend, Najeeb Miqati.
And here's one little kernel of info, between us: Jacques Chirac negotiated Prime Minister Miqati's appointment with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah behind Bush's back. This, of course, suggests that Bush's meeting with the Crown Prince was a last gasp attempt to drum up support for war on Syria which got blown off by the Prince.
The upshot is that Condi's ravings today deserve a wide toothy horselaugh!
Horselaugh
Lebanese kingmakers Walid Jumblatt (Druze), Saad Hariri (Sunni), Nabih Berry (Amal) and Hezbollah will continue to control two-thirds of the seats in Parliament. L'Orient Le-Jour announces two major deals in which the inheritors of the Christian Phalange and Lebanese Forces have been absorbed into the Hariri bloc and the Druze bloc, respectively. Solange al-Jumayyil has joined the electoral slate of Saad Hariri (son of Rafik) and Sethrida Geagea has joined forces with Walid Jumblatt on a common Shoof district slate. The odd man out is Michael ‘Awn, back from exile in France. Jumblatt is going to be working on him next.
So there will be no peace treaty with Israel, no disarming of Hezbollah militias, no forcing exiled Palestinians into desperate action and no rabidly anti-Syrian leadership. In fact, the current interim prime minister is Syrian President's Bashir Assad's good friend, Najeeb Miqati.
And here's one little kernel of info, between us: Jacques Chirac negotiated Prime Minister Miqati's appointment with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah behind Bush's back. This, of course, suggests that Bush's meeting with the Crown Prince was a last gasp attempt to drum up support for war on Syria which got blown off by the Prince.
The upshot is that Condi's ravings today deserve a wide toothy horselaugh!
So the Syrians have managed to get themselves in the situation of standing in the way of progress of people in the Middle East, and I would think that wouldn't be a very comfortable place for a Syrian regime to be.
Horselaugh
posted by Nur-al-Cubicle | 5:32 PM
3 Comments:
I think that lots of people missed the significance of Hariri's son being brought along by the Saudis to meet President Cheney and Pretzeldent Bush the day BEFORE the Saudi dubya lovefest.
I've been wondering if Prince Abdullah requested the conference with Cheney/Bush or vice-versa? I saw a story saying that Abdullah was unhappy with Washington's anti-Syria stance. And three days before, Prince Abdullah was being feted by Jacques Chirac in Paris.
My impression is that Bush is completely out-of-the-loop on Lebanon.
Then there was the curious recall of the US Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman and his replacement by a State Dept honcho David Satterfield.
The story I heard which seems intuitivley plausible is the the USA is pissed that the Saudis and French have in effect told 'em that Lebanon is their show and that "Yankees Stay Out" is the guiding phrase.
My hunch would be that Hariri junior was brought along to reassure Cheney et al that he'll be a good little boy and not make too many waves for Auon.
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