12 May 2007 Bloody Saturday

PAKISTAN: At least 27 are dead and a hundred wounded in Karachi in fighting betweeen rival political groups as demonstrations began in support of the ex-President of the Supreme Court, Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, fired by President Mushareff in violation of the Constitution. Members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the largest organization supporting Musharraf, and the Popular Pakistani Party, led former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, in exile, clashed. In the tulmult a police station, 4 buses and several vehicles were set afire. Three leaders of the opposition were shot dead by assassins on motorcyles. Police also fired on the crowds. [Via Il Corriere, Milan]

IRAQ: Officials fear for the fate of 3 US soldiers, who disappeared after an attack on US forces south of the Baghdad. Five other soldiers died. The three were likely captured by insurgents near Falluja, 50 km from the capital.

A patrol of 7 US soldiers accompanied by an Iraqi interpreter came under small weapons fire at 4:44 am local time 20 km west of Mahmudiyah and fought a battle with insurgents, who likely mounted a fake checkpoint. This group was travelling in two Humvees, which, apparently, is not SOP. Meanwhile, on the Baghdad-Falluja highway, 24 bodies were recovered. 17 were found bound and blindfolded, having been shot in the head. The other 7 were found in Abu Hatem quarter of east Falluja.

In Baghdad, an attack using dynamite gravely wounded the son of the Iraqi Vice President, Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunnit. Ahmed al-Hashimi is in critical condition after having been wounded Amiriya quarter of west Baghdad; he has already lost a sister and a brother in attacks on his family. Tariq al-Hashimi recently threatened to resign if Premier Nuri al-Maliki did not improve the security situation.

Two other bombs exploded, one in the Baladiyat Quarter of east Baghdad and another in the Saidiya of southwest Baghdad which targeted a US patrol. A suicide bomber detonated his payload against Iraq security forces in Madayin, 20 km south of Baghdad. [Via La Repubblica, Rome]

TURKEY: Smyrna. A bicycle suicide bomb killed 1 and wounded 12, some severely, in a marketplace. A major anti-Government demonstration is planned in Smyrna for Sunday.

SOMALIA: Mogadishu. A roadside bomb targeting the motorcade of UN representative John Holmes, UN Representative, killed 8 and wounded several more. No one in the motorcade was injured.

The Laws of War

Shouldn't a rule be established that if you bomb your own capital (or the one that you occupy), you lose? US heavy artillery working on Sunni neighborhoods in south Baghdad, apparently.

Looting in Mogadishu

Waves of looting, gathered from an article by Jean-Philippe Rémy of Le Monde

On Friday 27 April, waves of looting swept over Mogadishu as the Ethiopians claimed victory over the insurgents.

On Industrial Road,one of the main arteries in the vast area held by the insurgents for a month, the Coca-Cola plant, the only factory working in Mogadishu, was emptied a crowd that included forces of the transitional government (TGF), who said they have not been paid....They left bare walls, having carted off everything from the sugar stores to the generators to tens of thousands of bottles of Coke. As Ethiopian forces extended their hold on the city, looters attacked every building that had been abandoned by security guards, fearful of being taken for Islamic fighters, who held most of the city with the held of the largest tribes.

At the Hormuud Telephone Company, near the spaghetti factory, looters took away $50,000 in Somali shillings, which they stuffed into jute bags, as well as every piece of office equipment and furniture, including computers, said Ahmed Yusuf, Coca Cola President for Somalia. "I called Ethiopian command in Mogadishu for protection but they replied that they were there to force al-Qaeda out of the capital, not to guarantee public order. They told me to call the TGF".

But at that moment, TGF were looting every warehouse in the city and the quarters that had supported the insurrection....

Most technicians, businessmen and city notables had supported the insurrection and are fleeing the city with everything they can carry because President Abdullahi Yusuf will certainly redistribute the spoils to his supporters.

The looting only worsens the terrible result of one month of fighting: massive urban destruction and 1,500 dead according to ELMAN, which was close to the insurgents. But this number represents only the unburied. 400,000 people [1/3 of a city of 1.5 million] have fled the capital. Others who are seeking to leave have found the streets barricaded by Ethiopian troops, who will conduct house to house searches looking for suspected insurgents. Dozens if not hundreds of people have already been arrested. But most high-ranking insurgent leaders left the city a few days ago.

Self-inflicted

Via BBC:

So with tacit American approval and with other international governments looking on, Ethiopia sent troops into Somalia to support the weak transitional government.

Ethiopia is now trapped.

It wants to get out of Somalia, but cannot go until what it calls the "Islamist threat" is eliminated.

But every moment Ethiopian troops spend in Somalia stirs up more resentment and their presence acts as a compelling recruiting sergeant for insurgents, who say they will die trying to rid their country of the Ethiopian invaders.

Spillover

Washington gets Ethiopia to invade Somalia and then....

Nine Chinese nationals and sixty-five Ethiopians working at an oil exploration installation in eastern Ethiopia were killed on Tuesday 24 April by armed men who attacked a dawn. Another seven Chinese nationals were kidnapped.

The attack, led by rebels supported by Eritrea, says Addis-Abeba, targeted installations owned by Zhongyuan Petroleum Exploration Bureau in Abole, a small town in the Ogaden region according to the New China News Agency.

[Via AFP-Reuters]

The Spaghetti Factory War

The US-financed Ethiopians, apparently panic-stricken, have begun a mortar barrage of Bakara, the central marketplace of Mogadishu. BTW, the African Union troops were never fully deployed and are 7,000 below strength.

Meanwhile, Le Monde's Jean-Philippe Rémy reports on the Sphaghetti Factory war.

Mogadishu's urban guerrilla may be laying a trap for Ethiopian troops...The military capability of the insurgents, a coalition of fighters from the former Islamic Court and clans has been underestimated.

According to the UN, the group could number as many as 3,000 fighters...Not only have they been able to resist an Ethiopian's heavy artillery offensive, but they have put the forces of Addis-Abeba in difficulty in several areas, where they are continuously hemmed in by highly-mobile insurgents.

This first phase of combat left hundreds of people dead over four days and provoked an exodus of the city's population without preventing the insurgents from controlling vast sectors of the capital, leaving only a few pockets where Ethiopian forces hang on.

Now, in the second phase, Addis-Abeba has intensified its operations. Quarters held by insurgents are under rocket attack from the presidential palace of Villa Somalia, the stronghold of the Ethiopians, since April 19ths.

The Ethiopians have been attempting to reinforce their troops in Mogadishu during the last few weeks. A 40-vehicle convoy entered the city from the south in an attempt to surround rebel positions in the north of the city.

As new fronts open up in the Somali capital, the objective of Ethiopian troops is a spaghetti factory and its environs, serving as a base for the insurgents where they run a hospital for their wounded and enjoy the _total_ support of the population. The insurgents have once again gone on the offensive by harassing the Ethiopians with mortars and anti-aircraft artillery but "vanishing" when they are pounded by artillery from the presidential palace or the former military academy. According to a well-informed source, Ethiopian forces are once again surrounded by insurgents in various points of the city. The insurgents now have anti-tank weapons which are likely to further dog the operations of the Ethiopian army.

Friday, after two days of combat, a human rights organization close to the resisting clans estimates the number of civilians killed a 113 and wounded at 229.

While the intensification of combat threatens to destroy parts of city, an UN source complains: "With the bombardment of civilians and refugee camps, what is happening in Mogadishu could be considered a war crime."

Meanwhile, the [so-called] Somali President, Abdullahi Yusuf, is in Addis-Abeba, where he declared that the situation was not worsening.

According to a report by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, a large consensus is in favor of "a phased withdraw of Ethiopian troops and the full deployment of African Union Troops [mostly Ugandans, who are by and large Christians--Nur] who could instill confidence in the population and assist in calming tensions."

Mogadishu: Inexperienced Ugandan Kids on a Suicide Mission

Bad news from Somalia:

From Reuter's Sahal Abdulle Via Le Monde

MOGADISCIO (Reuters) - Rebels attacked Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies in Mogadishu shortly after mortars were fired at the arriving African Peace Force as they debarked in the Somali capital.

A hundred insurgents attacked a government base located in the former Defense Ministry HQ in Mogadishu’s industrial area.

Clashes between government forces and rebels lasted approximately an hour in which at least two civilians were killed.

“They were fighting with rocket launchers and machine guns,” declared Anab Mohammed, caught in the crossfire inside a hospital in the combat area.

Shortly before, more than a dozen explosions were heard at Mogadishu International Airport. The attack was commenced shortly after the arrival of an advance force of 350 Ugandan soldiers. A Ugandan Army spokesman said that no soldier was wounded.

“The military area of the airport was hit but we cannot get through the lines to reach the spot", said a Somali reporter who witnessed the mortar barrage.

LACK OF MEANS

Most Ugandan soldiers were flown in by the Algerian Air Force. Last week, a first detachment of 35 Ugandan soldiers arrived in Baidoa, where Somalia’s provisional government institutions are located.They are the first members of an international peacekeeping force deployed to Mogadishu since the failure of the UN and United States missions during the 1990’s.

...This force, which may reach 8,000 troops, including 1,600 Ugandans, is to replace Ethiopian troops who participated last December with Somali government forces in the successful offensive against Islamic militias holding Mogadishu and most of the south of the country since June.

...“This is a suicide mission. No sensible person would send 1,600 men to Somalia right now. Moreover, they are sending boys who have no experience in this type of mission", said an unidentified Western diplomat in Kampala.

As Sudan’s Darfur region, the African Union faces a lack of human and financial means. “I hope that our partners will assist us in overcoming the financial and logistical difficulties facing the African" Union, said Said Dijinit, the African commissioner in charge of peace and security.

...The situation in Somalia is very unstable and Mogadishu is the theater of daily attacks on government and Ethiopian forces.

...The Ugandans [Note: inexperienced kids!] have been assigned the particularly delicate task of restoring calm to Mogadishu, one of the most dangerous cities on earth.

The latest from Mogadishu

The Italians may be the sole Western reporters in Somalia. From what I understand, the EU has been asked by the US to fund the African Union's peacekeeping mission, but it has refused to do so unless a serious effort at reconciliation is made. The US is miffed about this sort of inclusive assembly, and has ruled out the participation of the Islamic Courts, which it it has labeled a terrorist organization. Not all cats are panthers, but the US is slow to understand this lesson when it applies to so-called "Islamists" for which it has declared blanket zero tolerance.

Correspondent Massimo A. Alberizzi of Corriere della Sera reports:

PORT HARCOURT (Nigeria) – An advance Ugandan army logistical unit arrived Thursday in Baidoa, the provisional seat of the transitional government. Its job is to organize the deployment of the African Union military contingent. In the next few days, 1,500 Ugandan troops are to arrive, to be followed by a least 850 Nigerian troops in April. Units from Ghana and Burundi are also expected. A total deployment of 8,000 men is planned but this goal is far from being realized.

DUTIES – However, the Ugandan President, Yoweri Musaveni, declared on Thursday that his army will not disarm the militias but will limit itself to defending the Somali government and its institutions, which, although internationally recognized, have virtually no power on the ground. The Ugandans will then build and train the Somali army and police. They are to arrive in Mogadishu next week. Men, weapons and armored vehicles are to be sent by special trains from Kampala to Mombasa. From this Kenyan port, all will be embarked for the sail to the Somali capital. Ethiopian troops already in Somalia will provide the defense necessary for their arrival.

In Mogadishu, the permanent capital, where the government intends to transfer itself as well as its institutions, the situation is extremely chaotic. Not a day goes by without gunmen shooting down “collaborators”, i.e., anyone working for the government. Another target of the gunmen are the Ethiopian troops that in December routed the government of the Islamic courts

THE FUNDAMENTALISTS – The fundamentalists had controlled Mogadishu and most of the country since June. Every day, Addis Abeba’s troops come under artillery or mortar fire. The air and sea ports also targeted. Many analysts have strong doubts concerning the ability of the African forces to restore peace and security.

FINANCING – Moreover, the African Union has warned that its coffers are empty. There is no money for the mission and so the Africans have requested money from the West. The Americans and the Italians will contribute something, but will it be sufficient to guarantee a mission for which no one really knows the duration? In any case, a peace and reconciliation conference is to start in early March in which all parts of Somali society have been invited to participate, except those whom the Americans have labeled “terrorists”. But an independent observer could not say who is a "terrorist" and who is not. On Wednesday evening, Somali President Abdullahi Yussuf discussed the conference behind closed doors with his Prime Minister, Ali Gedi. There was complete agreement –it was leaked– except on where to hold the conference. For security reasons, Abdullah believes it is better to hold the conference in the Puntland, in the north of the former Italian colony. Gedi, however, is pushing for Mogadishu, which would make the event more meaningful, prestigious and acceptable to those who, as of now, reject the idea.

Somalia, US botches coup

Having outsourced the coup in Somalia to the Ethiopians, the US has sent the country to hell.

"Somalia is actually becoming a more violent and chaotic place. That is not how it was supposed to be....confidence in the [new] government — never very high — is rapidly bleeding away....Somalia seems to be just shy of total collapse — again...Hundreds of families are streaming out of Mogadishu...." [Via the NYT]

Begs the question, just what did the Bush Administration think it was doing? The answer is same old, same old. Invade, then implement no plan at all. Notice that this took place during the Congressional recess/turnover.

The War with Islam: Siege of Kismayo

Somehow the geniuses at the Pentagon and the State Department have conflated all manifestations of fundamental Islam with al-Qaeda. Isn't this like lumping the Pentacostals with the Branch Davidians? The Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia put the warlords to flight, reopened the ports, restarted the schools, fed the poor and swept the streets yet have been declared outlaw al-Qaeda. The country now faces long-term occupation by Ethiopia.

This dispatch from Nairobi in the Corriere della Sera says the warlords have moved back in as well:
December 29th, 2006: Warlords return with the provisional government. A problematic peace in Mogadishu. The Prime Minister of the transitional government, Ali Mohammed Gedi, enters the capital: “We have won”

NAIROBI: -“We have won! The 'holy men' (as the fundamentalists are called in Somalia) have been routed”. This is the first statement by Ali Mohamed Gedi, the Prime Minister of the Somali transitional federal government upon his arrival Friday morning in Mogadishu. Gedi, escorted by a group of Ethiopian soldiers, was surrounded by a rejoicing crowd which danced as it celebrated his. In another part of the city – in the northern quarters – groups of Somalis greeted government soldiers and their Ethiopian allies with rocks. This is a sign that the city is divided and that some will miss the Islamic Courts.

Most regretted is the security that the fundamentalists were able to impose on the capital after 15 years of civil war during which the population was subjected to hardship and exaction. Now, many testify that the transitional government will be unable to maintain the order imposed and maintained by the Courts. Should the capital fall again into the hands of armed groups and the chaos caused by an internecine war, should every movement necessitate an armed escort or be greeted by a Kalashnikov aimed at the head, it will be disaster.

THE RETURN OF THE WARLORDS. The warlords, the protagonists of that terrible period, have returned to Mogadishu among government followers and have retaken hold of their headquarters. The Islamists had confiscated them and when they entered, filmed the diabolical items found therein for their propaganda videos: bottle of scotch, Ethiopian gin, beer, and ordinary videocassettes and magazines labeled as pornographic.

One of the warlords, Mohamed Qanyare Afrah -once the powerful leader of the Murusad clan, and former owner of the Daynile Airport (the international airport was reopened by the Islamists after having been closed for ten years) at which planes laden with qat (a leaf that his chewed and considered a drug –and therefore outlawed by the Courts used to land)- gave a telephone interview to the Corriere della Sera in which he declared that he had no intention of collaborating with the government: “Prime Minister Gedi can’t even manage his own household. He and President Abdullar Yussuf are a pair of incompetents. I used to be a minister but now I’m merely an MP and I intend to wage political war from my seat. I shall not cooperate, but neither shall I begin a boycott.

On the phone, Qanyare, who, until the victory of the Islamic Courts last June had been one of the leaders of the Alliance for Peace and Control of Terrorism backed by the Americans, assured that he would neither take up arms no organize a personal militia. I shall collaborate with government provided all factions disarm. Somalia must now live in peace”.

THE SOMALI FLAG – However, Gedi, accompanied by the Minister for the Interior, Hussein Aidid, visited the airport and the seaport, both under the watch of Ethiopian tanks. The Somali flag had been raised over several police stations, where the fundamentalists had imposed a black flag with Arabic writing. So far, there has been no sign of uprising, but everyone is wondering how long this state of relative quiet will last.

The Islamic militias, headed by a hardened and pure group of shebab (“youth”) are concentrated around the port city of Kismayo and have requested military assistance from all Muslim around the world and have sworn that this time they will not only resist but will launch a counteraccack.

USA AND ETHIOPIA – Obviously, Kismayo, a key city where all recent wars in Somalia began, is under special observation by the United States, which intends to tighten the net meant to capture those responsible for the US embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam in 1998. A C130 reconnaissance aircraft continuously overflies the city while on the horizon warships are thundering. No one believes that they will permit arms and fighters, determined to go into combat for Islam, to pass. It seems that the Americans and the Ethiopians intend to tighten the siege of Kismayo. Then, Addis Abeba, charged by Washington to do their dirty work for them, will ask the Courts to surrender and should this not occur, will proceed to wipe out the fundamentalists. Obviously, not. Massacres are excluded.

Massimo A. Alberizzi